As we turn the corner into Q4, we continue our hunt for new acquisitions while monitoring both local markets (particularly in the South East), and the general macro environment.
Here’s what we are seeing and I’ve included some article links if you would like to drill down on any of these topics.
THE SOUTHEAST HOUSING CYCLE FINDS ITS FLOOR
Falling yields and stabilizing spreads are reshaping capital flows across the Southeast, signaling that the next phase of multifamily growth will be built on balance and fundamentals, not leverage.
In October, the Southeast’s housing market reflected a transition from expansion to balance. After two years of record deliveries, developers across Georgia, Tennessee, Florida, and the Carolinas are finally easing the pace of new construction. At the same time, migration and affordability barriers continue to drive consistent absorption, keeping occupancies firm even as national rent metrics soften.
The Yardi Matrix September report marked the weakest rent growth for any September since 2009, but beneath the headline numbers, the Southeast remains structurally sound. Supply is cresting, capital costs are easing, and we are beginning to increasingly underwrite to stability rather than volatility.
The Yardi report underscored the market’s turning point. Average asking rents fell by $6 to $1,750, bringing year-over-year growth to 0.6%, while the South remained the nation’s most active region with roughly 53,000 completions in the third quarter.
Despite heavy deliveries, occupancy across key Southeastern metros stayed above 94%, supported by steady in-migration and employment growth. In Charlotte and Raleigh, absorption rates continue to track new supply closely. In Atlanta, rent growth has flattened but stabilized as lease-up velocity improves. Nashville added nearly 6,000 units over the past year and maintains 95% occupancy, while Tampa and Orlando show early signs of reacceleration as new deliveries moderate.
For multifamily operators like Cores, these data points confirm what we’re seeing on the ground: the Southeast’s cycle has shifted from expansion to digestion and it’s happening without the dislocation seen in other regions.
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CAPITAL & PIPELINE SIGNALS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
Investment and development trends across the region point toward normalization. After an aggressive 2024 cycle, construction starts are slowing across most major metros, allowing absorption to close the gap.
In Florida, Orlando and Tampa’s combined 30,000-unit pipeline is trending lower for the first time in two years, a signal that builders are recalibrating. Atlanta’s fundamentals have steadied, with suburban submarkets outperforming as rent-to-income ratios remain below 25%. Nashville continues to attract institutional capital, and Charlotte’s new projects are increasingly focused on infill and necessity-priced product rather than luxury supply.
This moderation phase is setting up a healthier foundation for long-term growth. With borrowing costs beginning to ease and debt markets reopening selectively, capital is reentering the region – not chasing yield but, again, positioning for stability.
HOUSING AND MIGRATION: THE REGION’S ENDURING ADVANTAGE
The Southeast continues to lead the nation in population growth. According to the latest Census Vintage 2024 estimates, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas each recorded strong net domestic migration, reinforcing the demand base that underpins multifamily performance.
Affordability barriers in ownership remain a central driver. Even with modest declines in mortgage rates, the cost of entry into homeownership remains out of reach for many households. As a result, renter-by-necessity demand continues to strengthen, particularly in suburban and secondary markets where employment centers and transport access overlap.
For investors, these dynamics mean that long-term absorption is not speculative, it’s structural.
MACRO BACKDROP: RATES, SPREADS, AND STABILITY
Broader market indicators suggest the economic base remains resilient.
- Mortgage Rates (Freddie Mac): 30-year fixed at 6.27%, the lowest since early summer.
- 10-Year Treasury: Dropped below 4%, improving pricing on permanent financing and CMBS spreads.
- GDPNow (Atlanta Fed): Tracking 3.9% annualized growth for Q3, underscoring solid fundamentals.
- NAHB Housing Market Index: Rose to 37, with the expectations sub-index surpassing 50 for the first time this year — signaling builder optimism.
- Multifamily Starts: Hover near 403,000 units annualized, confirming that supply pressure is easing across most Sun Belt metros.
This macro backdrop supports a more predictable cost of capital environment. Liquidity is returning to the debt markets, and the repricing of risk is creating a path toward healthier, long-duration growth.
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING — OCTOBER SIGNALS
- Pipeline moderation across key metros: New starts are declining while absorption accelerates in core submarkets.
- Capital re-entry: Institutional investors are selectively targeting stabilized, necessity-priced assets across the Southeast.
- Demographic durability: Migration and affordability continue to anchor rental demand even as national rent growth slows.
The takeaway: the Southeast’s housing cycle has found its floor. Developers are building less, tenants are absorbing more, and investors are rediscovering the region’s defining strength – stability built on structure, not speculation.
As always, please do not hesitate to let us know if you have any questions.
HOUSING GROWTH SIGNALS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
North Carolina’s growth story isn’t slowing. In the Triangle, new multifamily permits continue to add to an already active base. State data show steady authorizations in Wake and Durham Counties, reinforcing the region’s position among the fastest-growing rental markets in the Southeast.
On the multifamily side, developers continue to add units in Charlotte at one of the fastest clips in the nation. Developers are still committing capital: The NRP Group broke ground on a 348-unit community in Selma, and Peakline’s build-to-rent fund acquired a new site in Charlotte.
Market data underscores the trend. Yardi Matrix reports steady absorption in Charlotte, while Zumper shows rents holding firm despite new deliveries. Statewide, HousingWire highlights the affordability gap that keeps many households renting.
The signal is consistent: active permits, construction that is moving forward, and focused capital commitments are reinforcing multifamily demand, especially in well-located neighborhoods with high ownership barriers.
CHARLOTTE MARKET: PERMITS RISE AS BUILDERS DOUBLE DOWN
Opus has opened a new Dilworth office in Charlotte, marking its push into both industrial and multifamily projects in the region. The expansion reflects accelerating demand and rising interest in core and near-core neighborhoods.
Permit data highlights cracks of supply pressure. The RealPage July 2025 Metro Permit Update flagged that while multifamily permitting nationally has been soft, Charlotte is among the metros showing renewed year-over-year momentum.
At the same time, residential permit activity in the Charlotte region - covering Mecklenburg, Gaston, Iredell, Union, and Cabarrus counties - remains steady. According to Mecklenburg County’s open data dashboard, building permits (both residential and commercial) continue being issued at a healthy rate. The Daily Building Permits Issued report shows recent monthly activity holding above the same period last year.
For multifamily developers and operators, the implications are clear: competition for development sites in Charlotte is intensifying. As permitting picks up and new entrants like Opus move in, absorption rates and rental pricing in well-located submarkets may be the early beneficiaries.
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING - SEPTEMBER SIGNALS
In Wilmington, apartment completions are projected to fall nearly 29% this year compared to 2024, with deliveries dropping from 2,509 units last year to about 1,795 in 2025.
Even with that slowdown, demand is holding firm. According to Zumper, one-bedroom rentals average around $1,320, three-bedrooms about $2,390, and most units are leasing in just 16 days.
Investor activity is also steady in Raleigh-Durham. A partnership of Abacus, BMC, and Turnbridge acquired the 339-unit Sterling Town Center for $73.1 million, showing that capital is still flowing into demand-driven multifamily even with tighter financing conditions.
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Looking ahead, the combination of easing rates, durable renter demand, and targeted capital inflows point to continued support for multifamily performance. Our strategy is to stay positioned where fundamentals are strongest, remain disciplined in underwriting, and focus on opportunities that balance growth potential with downside protection. For more information about our investment approach or upcoming opportunities, please visit coresrealestate.com or contact our investor relations team at [email protected]
